Australia 26 World Cup Preview

The Socceroos are a regular at this point & they enter off of their best World Cup ever. I'm curious where that leaves expectations for their fans. Although another Round of 16 exit is technically just as good, it would see their first ever knockout victory which feels like another step forward.

The Australia men don't play soccer on a pitch, they play soccer in a fighting ring. More than even a Scotland or a Paraguay, if you stand in their way their mission is to kick the living shit out of you. I'm well aware the performance percentiles don't back up what I'm saying. But I'm skewed by the high amount of shit-talking & shoving I watched them do in full World Cup qualifiers as well as the fact that they rolled up to the US friendly in Colorado treating the game as anything but friendly. It's something that I dig, honestly. They've always embraced being the bruisers of Asia since joining that confederation, but it feels like they have doubled down on that being their identity & teams with extreme identities are teams that are fun to watch.

They're going to play in an extremely well-drilled 5-4-1 where every single man on the pitch is going to be expected to run into the ground for the team:

Harry Souttar is a great centerback who often has to make up for sketchier ones next to him; Behich is an entertaining left back who loves bombing upfield on the overlap or through the center; Jackson Irvine keeps the strings taut in all directions - he is such a wise player & a great dude. Hot take! I think their most effective attacker has been Mitch Duke. At least, I think he's the one that has been the most consistent for Australia in games that actually matter. He looks like a High School football Tight End who makes a decent Varsity Soccer striker just through sheer athleticism. I say that in the most endearing way possible - it's worked more than anything else the Aussies typically threw out there.

Around Irvine in midfield, they have like 4 available guys who play the exact same way (complimentary): they're scrappy nuisances to get around, covering so much ground.

Around Irvine in midfield, they have like 4 available guys who play the exact same way (derogatory): they can make the simple pass under pressure but don't bring any creativity or real line-breaking balls in possession. Australia really don't want the ball, can't do much with it.

Duke being their most consistent forward doesn't mean he is consistent outright. He isn't, which means nobody is in that attack. Lots of folks are excited about Nestory Irankunda. Good on him for netting in friendlies, but I won't assume that he's ready to deliver under pressure quite yet. In fact, Duke has officially been left at home for the final squad. I am certainly underrating the damage their younger, newer forwards could potentially do. But I don't trust anything that hasn't truly been tested yet; none of them have showed it in competitive international ball so far.

Just take a look at their Asian Cup record, where the lack of both creativity & goalscoring always comes to roost. Gone are the days of Tim Cahill being the guy - in 2019 & 2024 Australia saw quarterfinal exits in the Continental Cup.

A truly quality defense, not from just the back line but all 11 players on the field, can make the bounces & margins go their way. Even the front line defends with commitment & strong effect, making them one of the best back-to-front defensive units in the world.

This is where I ask myself if it feels like a time for them to make a run. As I do with a lot of underdogs coming off an overachieving prior World Cup, I lean answering "no". My vibes-based prediction has nowhere near enough on-field evidence to overtake it this time.

They are going to make life HELL for any team they see. But it feels like "the time" for USA & Turkiye a lot more than it does for the Socceroos. 3rd place is debatably their chalk finish but there are at least 8 other 3rd place teams I'd expect to have more points or goal differential.