Canada 26 World Cup Preview

Forever, Men's soccer in CONCACAF has been Mexico or USA, Mexico or USA - with Mexico the consistent victor of clashes between the two. As the world talked about the US golden generation, one was born up north in Canada too - one that's out to make the Big 2 in CONCACAF a permanent Big 3.

The Canadian golden generation have made waves in CONCACAF so far. They have yet to win that elusive trophy, a difficult thing to sit with given the fact that the Gold Cup & Nations League happen so often that they have an opportunity just about every single year. What Canada does have, though, is fake trophies: Topping the 2022 World Cup final round qualification & being the last CONCACAF team alive in the 2024 Copa.

This summer, they have the opportunity to win another fake trophy of being the final host alive in this World Cup - they're 2/2 this decade. Even the way they are treated as hosts has to have Canada feeling like a 3rd wheel in this tournament, as people talk about the damn thing like it's entirely in the USA while Mexico at least has richer history to fall back on.

That puts a chip on their shoulder, & they have a coach that loves that.

To me, Jesse Marsch is the star more than any individual player in this side. The international game always needs more extreme teams tactically, so I appreciate what he brings in that regard. Their identity is all against-the-ball & contagious if you let it take a hold of yourself. To be fair, the original coach of this generation John Herdman also had an against-the-ball identity. His style, however, was classic bunker-counter which did work fine enough until Qatar.

Marsch's is the polar opposite: high pressing & looking to punch opponents in the face. Often. For such an extreme swing, the player group adapted impressively fast. Most important of all I would argue is that the midfield core is wise, athletic, trustworthy, & deep enough to deal with the injuries or suspensions that come with a tournament like this.

They usually have a "front 4" of their narrow 4-4-2 ahead of the midfielders who are all quality in both pressing & possess the capability for special individual moments, the types of moments that fall to players who press opponents into mistakes.

Cyle Larin, Jonathan David, Tani Oluwaseyi, Tajon Buchanan, Ali Ahmed. Maybe Alphonso Davies if he gets deployed further up the field than left back.

Those midfielders I was talking about? Ismael Kone, Mathieu Choiniere, Stephen Eustaquio, Nathan Saliba.

Love the players ahead of the back line.

Jesse Marsch is excellent at convincing his teams that the world is against them. In turn, his teams always punch above their weight & are a real problem for opponents who are assumed to be better. I consider him the perfect definition of "love him on your team, hate him on any other team". A frequent tactic Marsch uses to achieve this is talking out of his ass, maybe even straight up lying. Claiming his players got "poisoned" on a CCC trip to Mexico. Always framing USA as having less passion than his team.

And I think it's working. These guys do play like spartans for 90 minutes. They've got a couple of players who can be real jackasses too, another good fit for this team as a whole. Dayne St. Clair does as much as he can in goal to be a villain, while Ritchie Laryea has got to be on CONCACAF's Mt. Rushmore of shithousing - he is elite at drawing a card for an opponent.

They live or die by this mentality. Marsch is in that dressing room sounding like a right wing conspiracy theorist, probably spewing shit like "remember: they want you dead".

They died by this mentality in their last competitive game, upset by Guatemala in the Gold Cup quarterfinals.

An individual mistake from Shaffelburg, sure, but it sure feels representative of the entire risk this team is always taking. If you start seeing red & forgetting the context of a match, this is always lingering as something that could happen to you. Will they learn from this? Time will tell.

Canada, for as great as they are at punching upwards no matter how high, can struggle when they need to punch down. If a team doesn't try to build out of the back, their press can only do so much & in this group they'll have to deal with being the favorites in 2 games. They are extremely reliant on scoring the first goal & the last thing they want is to have to knock the ball around themselves to create something against a low block. I see them relying heavily on set pieces & brute forcing a goal or two to get the game states where they want it in the group.

Also, their 2 best defenders - I'm not even talking Alphonso Davies, I'm talking DEFENDers - are returning from long injuries. Alistair Johnston is one of the best fullbacks in the world - I will stand by that take with my life - & Moise Bombito elevates their entire back line immensely. 90 minute shifts are much needed from those guys, especially Bombito as a centerback. Alarm bells went off in my head seeing that Kamal Miller started both of their March friendlies - one of those centerbacks that is solid as one of 3 but levels worse in a Back 4, Marsch's preferred formation.

Also, just looking at their performance percentiles has me feeling like I should be more worried about their defense given the chances they give up. These include the 2023 year of Herdman, so they aren't truly reflective of Marsch's team only, but there are some real red flags there.

Last personal note I need to get out there: Marsch has been using Jonathan David as a 10, specifically to drive me crazy. I've been told he has a habit of doing this to good 9s.

When Bombito was in that back line, they had an amazing semifinal finish in the 2024 Copa America. They treat tournaments like opponents: they've stepped up to the biggest stage before falling on their face in the smaller one that they should be going deep in.

Well, we are back to the biggest stage of all since Marsch took over - he simply gets these guys to believe the world is against them & there is so much to reap in the literal World Cup from that mentality.

Also, of course: it's a Home tournament until the quarterfinals, if they win the group.

Bullish on Canada. I give a ton of weight to their role as hosts, they've stepped up in a big tournament once already in 2024, & the mentality that I keep harping on flows through the veins of this team overshadowing any of the doubts I could cast on them.

Teams that press as intensely as this team presses often follow the same formula in tournaments: fly out of the gates, win the hearts of many along the way, but see diminishing returns in the later stages as gas runs out & opponents adapt. It's why Marcelo Bielsa is allergic to silverware.

Switzerland feel like the perfect team for this group to upset, so I like them to win the group which will regrettably put them in a Round of 16 path with, likely, Portugal rather than like a Netherlands or Japan. That would still be a great tournament for these guys & a big statement.