Colombia 26 World Cup Preview

After appearing in all 3 Men's World Cup Finals of the 90s, Colombia hit a drought failing to qualify for the next 3; that memorable run in 2014 was their long-awaited return, a moment they hoped to mark consistent qualification going forward. That idea failed by failing to get to Qatar.

On paper, they should come into North America with confidence because this cycle marked their best Copa America finish since their 2001 title & they did it in the United States, of course one of our host nations this summer.

The "big 2" in South America are the only teams that have wanted the soccer ball the past 4 years. Colombia falls in line with the rest in preferring defensive solidity, but in qualifying they ended up as possession protagonists a lot more often than they'd like.

The centerback position for them has been a rotating act this cycle; Davinson Sanchez-Jhon Lucumi is my best guess at the starting pair but it wouldn't surprise me if up to 4 players rotated somewhere in that pair. Ahead of them is a regular pivot of Jefferson Lerma & Richard Rios. Jefferson Lerma in particular is who I would call the most underrated defensive midfielder in international soccer; 2nd best in CONMEBOL only short of Moises Caicedo. He was far & away their most important part of their impressive Copa defensive record, ahead of any defenders even.

The legend James is still around, the 10 who will float to the right halfspace regularly as his right fullback overlaps. If they don't run 4-2-3-1, he's been the right wing in a 4-1-4-1. They use his gravity to overload the right to get Luis Diaz in 1v1 matchups on the other flank. Jhon Arias is the right winger of their preferred formation & still doing his best work off the ball. Up front, after years of nobody making an impact at center striker (see below example), Luis Suarez has been given the clear nod as he lights it up on the club side of the game.

And yes, among those failed forwards is Jhon Duran whose off-field issues look to keep him from this national team. Jhon Cordoba another. Both are freight train forwards, best with space to counterattack into; both struggled by my opinion when that option wasn't on, however.

They are still way too reliant on James Rodriguez because nobody else on this team can move the rock between the boxes at a high level. I'm serious. The midfield pivot are bruisers, Arias is a runner & Luis Diaz is a Final 3rd killer. Nothing special from the Back 4 on the ball either. They've anchored themselves to James for all of their in possession work & it presents issues both ways. Teams in friendlies are starting to identify he is the one you have to take away. If he's unavailable or benched, nobody else is progressing the ball while keeping possession of it well.

The result is a Colombia team that only attacks with 4 players at best. Any help in the opposition half from just one holding midfielder or fullback would do wonders, but their starters are all pure defenders in those positions. As you can imagine, they struggle when asked to dictate the game.

Their goalscoring struggles can get chalked up to this rather than individuals. James & Lucho can still do world class individual stuff. Colombia have hardly been able to create open play goals & when they do get one, it's surely at least 1 of those 2 at the heart of it. I hope Luis Suarez has much better movement than all the past 9s they've tried - he's only been involved in meaningless games thus I haven't watched too much - but even so I think this issue is systematic.

At least tell me Luis Suarez will make better decisions than this:

It's insane to talk about a Copa finalist like this, right? All of this was still true back then, though. The difference is that they became the best team in the world on attacking set pieces for 3 weeks. Those dried up during the next 12 months & the results started to show it. This team are best when they can defend & just let that front 4 counterattack - in that Copa, they beat Uruguay defending a lead with 10 men for an entire 2nd half & sat to make Argentina struggle.

My worry gets so much worse when I look at Group K where Colombia will have to play. And although the multi-years of statistics tell a story of a solid defense, I will still see the occasional breakdown that keeps me from putting it in the Ecuador/Paraguay tier:

Colombia are likely to have an effective home field advantage in most of their matches. They were the 4th highest nationality in ticket purchases for Russia 2018 & that might go even higher with a tournament in America. It is hard to beat the sea of yellow.

With crowds behind them & at least Luis Diaz in the team, it's well within the realm of possibility for Colombia to put together a campaign that looks like Portugal from the 2016 Euro, 1-6-0 record where they just kept taking care of business after 90 minutes in the knockouts.

I would be grouping Colombia if we were playing in empty stadiums, full stop. Portugal should outclass them & the other 2 opponents are very good defensive units built well to expose their weaknesses. I'm also not as sold on their defense as I should be; I do not trust CB1 Davinson.

But I am having to grapple with the fact that this is almost like Colombia hosting this World Cup; I remember stadiums in all yellow during summer 2024, another big factor in lifting them up throughout that campaign. I still want to predict a underwhelming campaign, but maybe like a Round of 32 exit.