Ecuador 26 World Cup Preview

Ecuador arrived at the 2022 World Cup flying, making a huge statement to dunk on the hosts in the opening match. The position slipped out of their hands, though, as the group got tougher & the taste in their mouths on the way out was a little disappointing, even if they were odds-on to lose there. What they followed that tournament up with, though, was a quarterfinal Copa America run that was worthy of a semifinal. They wrestled World & America champions Argentina to penalties. Outside of summertime, they've had an impressive qualification campaign.

That chip from 2022 still rests on the shoulder of these players. They arrive in North America with that tournament experience, a well earned confidence to keep up with anybody & stomachs that are hungry for a long tournament campaign.

If you ask me, they have *earned* the title of best defense in the world. Sure, the best 5 or so teams in the world might have a better defense. But they don't *earn* it as much - they have game models that are built around minimizing the defending that they have to do. Ecuador on the other hand fights hard for that claim, eager to roll the ball to their opponents to show the crowd a masterclass in defending. They do it just about every time they step on the pitch & if you can't appreciate it, I'd say you're missing out.

A lot of the best international defenses are surprises to fans who don't know the players' names. That isn't the case here; club fans will recognize the central core of this group. Willian Pacho, Piero Hincapie, & Moises Caicedo are all world class at their positions. I mean, just look at the average position of the entire team but overwhelmingly Willian Pacho in their win at Colombia after grabbing a 7' lead:

The guys around the big names are damn good too, though. I can keep going with the centerbacks; Felix Torres was Best XI quality in the Copa & Joel Ordonez looks to have potential to be just as good as Pacho or Hincapie. Everybody buys into this fortress that can handle the strongest attacks. Part of the reason they are so invincible is that they don't take big risks when attacking; the only defensive guy with freedom to go forward is Pervis Estupinan who flies like a madman into the attack on the left underlap or overlap. And for him, target #1 is Enner Valencia of course.

The attack is not very dangerous & far too reliant on Enner Valencia becoming Superman. Servicing him is the only recognizable pattern they have. He tends to meet the moment, especially the couple of times he's been at the World Cup, but it still isn't reliable enough for my tastes. We have to be honest, stuff like this you can not count on being replicable:

If you watch the goals they've scored in qualifying, a lot come when Enner is playing off of a strike partner in a formation that ends in 2. Most of the spark comes from pressure & turnovers created by that partner, like in the video above. Based on the March friendlies, however, it looks like they will instead rely on an attacking midfield line that doesn't produce at a good enough level.

xG would be a lot more informative, but their Big Chances bar hints at the defense being pretty damn lucky. I'll push back against this from all I've seen. My guess is that the concedes big chances often come from another worry, though: those defenders are horrendous at passing out of the back.

I'm hoping that Ecuador will be a lot more no-nonsense at the damn World Cup, but the insistence on underwhelming attacking midfielders does not give me confidence that their manager is also going to want to play out of the back at times.

Defense wins championships. Of course it would be WILD for them to become the next nation to lift the Men's World Cup, but to make it simpler, defense wins knockout soccer. It is always better to have an A-tier defense with an F-tier attack than the reverse.

They can shut out any team on the planet & have the depth in that defense to sustain any fatigue or suspension concerns. If they can arrive in North America with some well-trained attacking set pieces, they can do serious damage.

2014 Costa Rica were a penalty shootout away from the World Cup semifinals & this team are a much better version of them, roughly. No Keylor Navas, sure, but the Ecuadorian goalkeeper does a fine enough job; besides, all the good goal-preventing is done well before him.

The semifinals are a realistic ceiling & quarterfinals feel right. A Round of 16 exit with a knockout victory would be a smashing success but I'd still find it the tiniest bit disappointing. They're a historic defensive side who feel deserving of a bigger splash.