Uruguay 26 World Cup Preview

I'm not sure exactly what got into Uruguay, but something compelled them to pivot aggressively from the 4-4-2 deep block we knew forever to the complete opposite offball approach: Marcelo Bielsa's Murderball. This will be their first time on the world's stage in the new look. Despite how drastic this change is, they of course remain a team whose model foundation is out of possession play. Bielsa is a darling around the world for tactics nerds, there have been thousands of articles detailing his philosophies & systems - he's brought just about all of it here.

It does feel like this World Cup will bring the two most aggressive pressing teams we have ever seen in the MWC, Uruguay being one of them. Expect a ton of man-marking, vertical play at the other team & attempts to create transition moments. It makes for must-watch TV, I must concede.

Players will at first good opportunity boot the ball as far down into one of the wide spaces as they can & from watching all of their goals, Uruguay tend to find more success on the right side. First look is if there's enough space to give Darwin a chance to find an individual goal. Second look is for the wingers to get a chance from those wide hoofs to then serve Darwin crashing the box. From those chances, they cannot get countered - they don't want the keeper catching that shot & you can tell from the way they strike it. If a player loses the ball pre-shot, you guessed it, the trigger clicks for the nearest player to close in, foul, do whatever they can to prevent the ball coming back their way. We all know how this looks. A lot of the players feel the same because they all are so bought in to the collective.

Darwin, of course, is a standout up top in this system that actually fits well for his whole chicken-with-head-cut-off play. Valverde actually gets to play the role of Tempo Guy in the rare instances they call of it, which he never gets at his club - cool changeup to see.

For me, Mathias Olivera is their best centerback & also their smartest - his positioning is vital as you'd imagine in this system. Ronald Araujo, for his faults, can be quite the effective bulldog in this team & Olivera's definitely the best partner to balance out his erratic nature, let's say.

The entire thing is also uplifted by the fact that Muslera's heir, Rochet, is a rock between the posts. He's the type of guy good enough to stand on his head & keep them in games, it would not surprise me if he comes away with at least one Man of the Match this summer.

Take away that space for them to hoof those transition-creating-moments & you have a decent chance at shutting them out. Go watch the Copa America semifinal they lost, where Colombia got a first half red card yet Uruguay couldn't find an equalizer to stay alive.

If the defense can hold up, they might have to rely on a shootout or two but otherwise can make a deep run especially with how high their upside is for upsets. They already beat Brazil in the 2024 Copa group & have never been out of a competitive game under Bielsa.

The floor-to-ceiling space feels so thin & I am treating them like a foregone conclusion based on Bielsa's history. It's the same script over & over again.

Uruguay will fly out the gates, being a group stage favorite & certainly able to take points off of Spain. They'll definitely add at least one knockout stage win, maybe two, but eventually the gas runs out.

Bielsa has brought his classic refusal-to-rotate theory already to this team. Which is fine for 2-match international windows in a qualifying cycle. But we saw this cycle play out in the Copa. ~5 games is a damn strong prediction for how long a Bielsa team will last in a tournament like this. It's probably where I'll have them. Factor in the summer heat for outdoor stadiums, 8 matches needed to be a finalist... even semifinals feels a degree too far.

Uruguay will be fun. They'll be a "streets won't forget" team when people are talking 15 years from now - think Colombia 2014 in terms of legacy. They'll have a couple of trademark wins. They'll go out probably in the Round of 16.

I'm framing this all very negatively, though it doesn't need to be! Uruguay were grouped at the last Men's World Cup, so a knockout win here will be short-term progress - it'll just feel samey to what they did at the Copa 2 years ago. It'll be special & memorable, but results-wise, I don't think we're seeing a potential semifinalist like in 2010.